Dollar sets new record above $1.07 US as unemployment rate drops to 5.8 per cent
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By Julian Beltrame, The Canadian Press
OTTAWA - The Canadian dollar entered uncharted territory Friday after a monster employment report blew the roof off the upper limits for the loonie's potential.
With the economy pumping out 63,000 additional jobs in October and the unemployment rate plunging to 5.8 per cent - the best in 33 years - the dollar gained a full two cents in morning trading, peaking over $1.07 US.
The loonie, already soaring on high commodity prices, hit new records Friday, surging more than 1.9 cents to end the day at 107.04 cents US, its highest close on record. Earlier, the loonie traded as high as 107.3 cents US before cooling slightly as a new report showed U.S. employment also was healthy in October, gaining 166,000 jobs.
"That's a big move," said Bank of Montreal deputy chief economist Douglas Porter. "I think a reasonable near-term target now is $1.10, but there's no sign it's going to stop there."
The loonie has risen 22 cents this year alone against the U.S. greenback, making it the world's best-performing major currency. But it has also appreciated against the euro, Japanese yen, Brazilian real and other currencies, making goods imported from Europe, Japan and Brazil cheaper for Canadian consumers.
The rising level has benefited consumers booking U.S. vacations to the sunny south and cross-border shoppers flocking to U.S. border cities looking for bargains on everything from auto parts to CDs, shoes and clothes. It has also forced some Canadian retailers to lower their prices in response and helped more and more companies afford U.S.-built technology and machinery to boost productivity.
Opinions were mixed if the dollar has risen too fast, too high. Paul Gardner of Avenue Investment Management in Toronto said at best the economic fundamentals justified a loonie at par with the greenback, adding that much of the quick appreciation was based on speculation and an exaggerated view of the Canadian economy's strength.
Currency traders believe the stronger than expected jobless report Friday has made it less likely the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates, which means the rate spread between Canada and the United States will remain attractive in Canada's favour.
Gardner noted that while the jobs number may look impressive to foreign investors, a closer look would show that most of the gain was in government and social service jobs. As well, the market views Canada as an oil superpower, "when we're really more of a natural gas producing country," he said.
"Don't get me wrong, it's a great economy, but ... we're now nine months that the private sector hasn't created any jobs."
Gardner said the loonie is also being pushed up by investors fleeing the weakening U.S. greenback to foreign currencies, which has a disproportionate impact on the lighter-traded loonie.
But CIBC analyst Avery Shenfeld said attributing the rise to speculation does not detract from the real factors behind the surge.
"Speculators who push currencies or oil prices or anything else to levels they can't sustain, are speculators who lose money," he noted. "Speculators are not doing this in a vacuum, they are looking at underlying fundamentals that are very positive for the Canadian economy."
While the headline jobs number was five times higher than economists' consensus, analysts cautioned there was also some underlying weakness in the statistics.
All and more of the additional jobs came in the service sector, which gained 66,200 jobs, particularly in health care services and public administration. This boosted this sector's job growth to 3.2 per cent in the past 12 months, but so far this year, the goods producing side is actually down 0.5 per cent.
As well, public-sector employment growth outstripped the private sector by a ratio of six-to-one last month, or 38,000 to 6,500, some as a result of one-time additional hiring for the Ontario provincial election.
Meanwhile, the dollar-battered manufacturing sector registered another poor month in October, shedding an additional 3,500 jobs.
The tight labour market continued to apply pressure on wages as employers paid workers 4.1 per cent more for their hourly labour than a year ago, well above the 2.5 per cent inflation rate.
So far this year, the economy has created 346,000 new jobs, three-quarters in full-time positions and the vast majority in the public sector.
Porter said while the "jobs party" is good news for the domestic economy in terms of higher wages and consumer spending, "This is definitely not good news from a productivity standpoint, as employment has risen more in the past year (2.5 per cent) than real GDP (2.4 per cent)."
The dollar and jobs story also puts the Bank of Canada in the delicate position as it considers what do to with interest rates at it's next scheduled announcement on Dec. 4, particularly after the U.S. Federal Reserve Board cut its key rate another 25 basis points this week.
Canadian Auto Workers president Buzz Hargrove met in Ottawa with Industry Minister Jim Prentice on Friday to ask for assistance for the auto sector. Referring to Thursday's announcement of 1,100 jobs layoffs at the Chrysler plant in Brampton, Ont., Hargrove said the dollar is only making a bad situation worse.
"We need a dramatic lowering of the interest rates," he said he told Prentice. "The Americans have already lowered interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point in the last couple of months and we have done nothing."
Hargrove said many auto parts manufacturers signed contracts in the U.S. when the dollar was under 90 cents US, putting them in a precarious position today.
"This dollar coupled by this latest announcement by Chrysler could very well tip them into bankruptcy," he said. Prentice discounted applying pressure on the central bank on interest rates.
While bank governor David Dodge has shown no inclination of budging from the current stand still position, Gardner said the situation has changed dramatically since the bank's last announcement in October.
"The Bank of Canada said at $1.02 US that they were uncomfortable with the level of the currency, so they have to back it up with more than words," he said. "If we're at $1.07 and above for a couple of weeks and it looks like it will stay there, they may have to cut interest rates by a quarter point," he said.
In Toronto, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said he is concerned about the rise in the currency and its impact on corporate Canada but won't intervene on the interest rate front.
"I'm always concerned about rapid acceleration of the currency because of its effect on business," he said after a speech. "Business tries to plan and it's very difficult for businesses to plan when they see volatility in the currency like that. Having said that, monetary policy is the responsibility of the Bank of Canada. I have regular discussions with the governor of the bank and I think their next date for rate-setting is the first week in December."
Flaherty said Canada's manufacturing sector remains vibrant and resilient despite the loonie's rise.
"Over the course of the last several years, we've seen resiliance in the Canadian manufacturing sector," he said. "In the auto sector, there is some weakness. In the forestry sector, there is certainly weakness. That has a lot to do with a reduction in demand in the US economy."
In Quebec, where the forest sector has been particularly hurt, provincial Economic Development Minister Raymond Bachand said the Bank of Canada must follow the lead of the Federal Reserve and cut interest rates.
"The Bank of Canada isn't moving because it's afraid of inflation," Bachand said in Quebec City. "Inflation isn't our major worry."
It's the "rapid rise" of the loonie and this can put investments and exports in danger, he said.
Bachand said he will introduce a plan in the next few weeks to deal with the pain that Quebec's manufacturing industry is experiencing as a result of the high loonie.