Do you think he was fired instead of persuing other interests? I would think he might have burned out, its got to be cut throut in the upper chambers of the ws trying to figure out what their next move needs to be...one wrong one could spell disaster...Do you think they are the least bit concerned that florists are starting to question the authority and the need? I really do wonder that fact? Do they feel the pressure mounting? what do you guys feel? I know in my fantasy land brain, I like to think they are hurting and order gathering is harder than they thought with 100,000 orders and not enough people to fill them or that membership is suffering and they are running out of ideas to pass on more fees without sacrificing more membership....but that is just my biggest hopes and wishes, karma is a @@@@@ and they have a whole lot coming, it is just a matter of when..
Is TF hurting - my emphasis above, incidentally - you wonder?
In an effort to answer that, let's look at some of their revenue streams:
- # of florists may be in question if, as evidence, they keep "recently" departed florists in their directories. Has anyone seen a public statement from TF that defines florist numbers? One can question their $s from florist dues but if the directory size does not grow and we know they keep former florists in, we can assume, loosing revenue here;
- orders to fill, regardless of how sent, are not what they were even 2 years ago in terms of quantity and probably $s if you look at the TF website and work on the basis that the product mix and generally low value represents their order take fairly. Therefore, loosing revenue here;
- activity fees - covering charges for this, that and everything - are up in general vs. 1 or 2 years ago. Un-clear whether this covers any lost revenue from above;
- rebates are probably down in the amount of business transacted is down - so some savings there;
- Stems & Bunches currently running a % off promo - and one of a few this year. If total orders are down, fair to assume their Stems & Bunches transactions down. Unclear about their margins but if their promoting, margins probably also suffering. Final picture with S&B, un-clear but probably down;
- Hard goods - "Keepsakes" - business is also surely down per individual sku sold but as so many now, one wonders re total $ earned. What is certain though is their COGS from China/Asia will be noticeably up vs. past 1 to 2 years. Over-all, un-sure but betting on a diminshed net $ scenario.
Costs:
Marketing/A&P definitely up vs previous years with TV spend and print and then on-line which did not exist a few years ago.
Other fixed and variable costs are probably at the least the same as 2 yrs ago and probably more.
So, over-all, in my estimation, they are hurting $.
Changing leadership comes about through:
- retirement/natural wasteage but clear succession plans invariably in place and well communicated, usually well in advance;
- failure to develop the business as owners or board want to see it which can lead to sudden or relatively quick change at the top;
- scandal of a public or private nature bringing quick departure; and
- head hunted for 3rd party which usually (?) is communicated at the time of the change.
I would
think that the change at TF has come about due to a failure to develop the business as owners or board wished.
Simon